Erector Spinae Plane Block for Uncomplicated Renal Colic
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-02-02, after 2023-02-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: blockpatientto determinesurgeryprior
Phrases that lowered it: indexurinaryinjectionrenalpain -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 746 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 135 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3533 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- supportive care (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 746 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 135 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3533 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 369 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ropivacaine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Erector Spinae Plane Block NCT04118101 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Comparative Study of USG Guided ESPB vs USG Guided PVB For Post-op Analgesia In Patient's After Open Renal Surgeries NCT06728514 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- The Erector Spinae Plane Block and Its Effect on Respiratory Status and Pain Management in Rib Fracture Patients NCT03805360 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- Continuous Erector Spinae Block for Post Analgesia in Pediatric Patients NCT04613830 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Erector Spinae Plane Block in Scoliotic Adolescents NCT03968146 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.