Colchicine in Patients With Heart Failure and Preserved Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-09-01, after 2022-12-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ventricularleftheartfractionfailure
Phrases that lowered it: indexm2massbmibody -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 28 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 22 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 21522 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2086 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Interleukin-1 Blockade in HF With Preserved EF NCT02173548 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Colchicine in HFpEF NCT04857931 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
- Randomized Double-blind Trial to Study the Benefit of Colchicine in Patients With Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure NCT04705987 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Cilostazol for HFpEF NCT05126836 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- LCZ696 in Advanced LV Hypertrophy and HFpEF NCT03928158 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.