NUC-3373 in Combination With Other Agents in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: advancedcarcinomaand necksquamoushead and
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsefficacypainhealthyclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22848 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 177485 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of NUC-3373 in Combination With Other Agents in Patients With Colorectal Cancer NCT05678257 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Pembrolizumab in Cancer of Unknown Primary NCT03752333 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• LYT-200 Alone and in Combination With Chemotherapy or Tislelizumab in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT04666688 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• AZD9150 Plus Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced, Solid Tumours and in Patients With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT03421353 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Combination Therapy of F16IL2 and Paclitaxel in Solid Tumour Patients NCT01134250 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.