A Window-of-Opportunity Trial of Giredestrant +/- Triptorelin vs. Anastrozole + Triptorelin in Premenopausal Patients With ER-positive/HER2-negative Early Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerventricularhearther2left
  Phrases that lowered it: trialand safetythe investigatorprior toscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 37329 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Preoperative Window Opportunity Study With Giredestrant or Tamoxifen in Premenopausal Women With ER+/HER2[-] & Ki67≥10% NCT05659563 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01791478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Neadjuvant Multi-agent Chemotherapy or Letrozole Plus Ribociclib in Luminal B/HER2-negative Breast Cancer. NCT03248427 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Hormonal Therapy Plus Palbociclib in Operable, Hormone Sensitive and HER2-Negative Primary Breast Cancer NCT03969121 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Treatment of Locally-advanced Breast Cancer Patients With Ribociclib and Letrozole NCT05163106 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.