Complement C5 mAb in the Treatment of Anti-GBM Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidneydiseaseantipriorstage
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetysafety ofefficacy anddiseasesopen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Eculizumab in Primary MPGN NCT02093533 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Eculizumab Therapy for Dense Deposit Disease and C3 Nephropathy NCT01221181 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Proof-of-Mechanism Study to Determine the Effect of Danicopan on C3 Levels in Participants With C3G or IC-MPGN NCT03124368 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability of BCX9930 in Participants With Either Complement 3 Glomerulopathy (C3G), Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy (IgAN), or Primary Membranous Nephropathy (PMN) NCT05162066 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of IONIS-FB-LRx, an Antisense Inhibitor of Complement Factor B, in Adult Participants With Primary IgA Nephropathy NCT04014335 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.