Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of FBL-MTX in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsleast weeksstablemgactive
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate thethe efficacyjointto evaluate
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Preference Methotrexate (MTX) Pre-filled Syringe Versus Pre-filled Pen in Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT01793259 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Filgotinib Alone and in Combination With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Are Naive to MTX Therapy NCT02886728 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MLTA3698A in Combination With a Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drug (DMARD) Compared With Adalimumab in Combination With a DMARD in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01225393 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Tregalizumab in Subjects (MTX-IR) With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01999192 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of ABT-122 Given With Methotrexate in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT02141997 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.