Evaluate the Effect of Tirazamine on Primary Liver Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-11-20, after 2021-05-14 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomatumorstagephase iimetastasis
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsand safetyevaluate theefficacy andto evaluate -
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 50% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tirapazamine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- TATE Versus TACE in Intermediate Stage HCC NCT03145558 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
- TACE and Sorafenib for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) NCT00618384 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
- Orantinib In Combination With Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization In Patients With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT01465464 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
- HAIC Plus Sorafenib Versus TACE Plus Sorafenibfor Advanced HCC NCT02856126 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Sorafenib Alone Versus Sorafenib Combined With HAIC for Advanced HCC NCT02774187 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.