A Phase II, Multicenter, Double Blind, Placebo-Controlled Safety, Tolerability Study of BMS-708163 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bowelgistabletherapypatients
  Phrases that lowered it: alzheimeradperiodmild toto moderate
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 106 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 165 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multicenter, Double Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Safety and Tolerability Study of BMS-708163 in Patients With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease NCT00890890 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and the Effect of BMS-241027 on Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers in Subjects With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT01492374 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study of SB-742457, Added to Donepezil for the Treatment of Mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00710684 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Blood Levels of PF-03654746 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01028911 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• Study of SB-742457 or Donepezil Versus Placebo in Subjects With Mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00708552 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.