Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and the Effect of BMS-241027 on Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers in Subjects With Mild Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradivdsmstroke
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatesubjectsthe effecteffect ofscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 318 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II, Multicenter, Double Blind, Placebo-Controlled Safety, Tolerability Study of BMS-708163 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00810147 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Single Ascending Dose Study of BIIB037 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01397539 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and the Effects on Cerebrospinal Fluid Spectrin Breakdown Product-145 Levels of ABT-957 in Subjects With Mild Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment NCT02573740 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Immunogenicity, and Pharmacodynamic Response of Repeated Intravenous Infusions of BAN2401 in Subjects With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT02094729 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Combined Single Ascending Dose and Multiple Ascending Dose Study NCT01230853 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.