A Multicenter, Double Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Safety and Tolerability Study of BMS-708163 in Patients With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientstreatmentvitamindiagnosiswomen
  Phrases that lowered it: safetypharmacokinetictolerabilityabledrug abuse
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II, Multicenter, Double Blind, Placebo-Controlled Safety, Tolerability Study of BMS-708163 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00810147 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Blood Levels of PF-03654746 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01028911 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and the Effect of BMS-241027 on Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers in Subjects With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT01492374 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study To Evaluate The Safety And Tolerability Of Dimebon Patients With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00838110 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating TheSafety And Efficacy Of PF-05212377 Or Placebo In Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease With Existing Neuropsychiatric Symptoms On Donepezil NCT01712074 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.