Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Tarceva and Capecitabine in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-08-31, after 2008-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticwith advancedthe patientstage
Phrases that lowered it: efficacyand safetycombinationsafety ofevaluate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5017 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2099 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, erlotinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Gemcitabine-erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine-erlotinib-capecitabine in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01303029 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of a Neoadjuvant Treatment in Pancreatic Cancer NCT01389440 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine, Capecitabine, and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT00885066 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- ATX Study:A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab), Tarceva (Erlotinib) and Xeloda (Capecitabine) in Patients With Locally Advanced and/or Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT00925769 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Oxaliplatin, Gemcitabine, and Erlotinib Study in Patients With Advanced Chemo-naïve Pancreatic Cancer NCT00636883 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.