PF-00299804 in Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Not Responding to Standard Therapy for Advanced or Metastatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: small cellcell lungnon smallpatients mustlung cancer
  Phrases that lowered it: daystrialadvanced14patients who
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• -02341066 and PF-00299804 for Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01441128 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01186861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Pirfenidone Combined With Standard First-Line Chemotherapy in Advanced-Stage Lung NSCLC NCT03177291 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel + Plinabulin Compared to Docetaxel + Placebo in Patients With Advanced NSCLC NCT02504489 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study of Erlotinib (Tarceva®) in Combination With OSI-906 in Patients With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) With Activating Mutations of the Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Gene NCT01221077 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.