Study of XL147 (SAR245408) or XL765 (SAR245409) in Combination With Letrozole in Subjects With Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2subject hascellsthe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thecombinationto evaluateresultsclinical
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 707 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2838 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 493 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of XL147 (SAR245408) in Combination With Trastuzumab or Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Progressed on a Previous Trastuzumab-based Regimen NCT01042925 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant or Letrozole, Based on Prior Endocrine Therapy, in Patients With PIK3CA Mutant, HR+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer Who Have Progressed on or After Prior Treatments NCT03056755 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Effectiveness of GDC-0032 When Given Alongside Tamoxifen NCT02285179 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/II Study of LY2780301 in Combination With Weekly PACLITAXEL in HER2-metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01980277 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• BI 836845 in Estrogen Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02123823 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.