Study of XL147 (SAR245408) in Combination With Trastuzumab or Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Progressed on a Previous Trastuzumab-based Regimen

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2trastuzumabtumormetastatic breast
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationcontainingmultiplehivregimen
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 476 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of XL147 (SAR245408) or XL765 (SAR245409) in Combination With Letrozole in Subjects With Breast Cancer NCT01082068 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/II Study of LY2780301 in Combination With Weekly PACLITAXEL in HER2-metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01980277 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Lapatinib Plus Nab-Paclitaxel As First And Second Line Therapy In her2+ MBC NCT00709761 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Tucatinib, Palbociclib and Letrozole in Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive and HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT03054363 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Capecitabine, Cyclophosphamide, Lapatinib Ditosylate, and Trastuzumab in Treating Patients With HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01873833 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.