Evaluation of the WATCHMAN Left Atrial Appendage (LAA) Closure Device in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Versus Long Term Warfarin Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hearttherapyatrialgreaterfibrillation
  Phrases that lowered it: agedlong termefficacyclopidogrelstudy to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 82 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4561 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Assessment of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Versus Rivaroxaban In Atrial Fibrillation Patients Treated With Left Atrial Appendage Closure NCT03273322 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Left Atrial Appendage (LAA) Occluders After Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation NCT01695824 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Resolution of Left Atrial-Appendage Thrombus - Effects of Dabigatran in Patients With AF NCT02256683 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Edoxaban vs. Warfarin in Subjects Undergoing Cardioversion of Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) NCT02072434 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Dose-range Finding Study of MAA868 in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation NCT04213807 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.