Safety and Efficacy of Simtuzumab (SIM, GS-6624) in Adults With Advanced Liver Fibrosis But Not Cirrhosis Secondary to Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: aminotransferasedaysdefinedstagewithin 30
  Phrases that lowered it: liverparticipantscirrhosishepatichcv
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 81 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Simtuzumab (SIM, GS-6624) in the Treatment of Cirrhosis Due to NASH NCT01672879 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986036 in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Stage 3 Liver Fibrosis NCT03486899 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Simtuzumab (GS-6624) in the Prevention of Progression of Liver Fibrosis in Adults With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC) NCT01672853 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• A Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986036 in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Liver Cirrhosis NCT03486912 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Selonsertib, Firsocostat, Cilofexor, and Combinations in Participants With Bridging Fibrosis or Compensated Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03449446 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.