Multicenter Single-arm Pilot Study Evaluating Efficacy of Nilotinib in CML Patients With Molecular Relapse After Glivec Discontinuation Within the Context of the STIM Trials (STIM and STIM2)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cmlleukemiamolecularmyeloidrelapse
  Phrases that lowered it: drugefficacyand safetytrialsmale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4311 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study That Switched Patients From Imatinib to Nilotinib and Then Was Followed by Treatment Cessation NCT01744665 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib Versus Standard Imatinib (400/600 mg Every Day (QD)) Comparing the Kinetics of Complete Molecular Response for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia in Chronic Phase (CML-CP) Pts With Evidence of Persistent Leukemia by Real-time Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (RQ-PCR) NCT00760877 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib ± Peg-IFN for First Line Chronic Phase CML Patients NCT02201459 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Study of Molecular Response in Adult Patients on Nilotinib With Philadelphia Chromosome Positive Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (Ph+ CML) in Chronic Phase and a Suboptimal Molecular Response to Imatinib NCT00644878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Nilotinib in Newly Diagnosed Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Patients NCT01254188 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.