CR1447 in Endocrine Responsive-HER2neg and TN-ARpos Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-10-24, after 2016-06-14 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: protocolmetastaticadvancedwomentherapy
Phrases that lowered it: endocrineand tolerabilitydays beforesafety andapplication -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 53 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase II Study Evaluating the Role of Androgen Receptors as Targets for Therapy of Pre-treated Post-menopausal Patients With ER/PgR-negative/AR-positive or ER and/or PgRpositive/ AR-positive Metastatic Breast Cancer (ARTT) NCT02000375 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
- Study on Androgen Receptor and Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT03383679 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Targeting EGFR/ERBB2 With Neratinib in Hormone Receptor (HR)-Positive/HER2-negative HER2-enriched Advanced/Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT04460430 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of Cabazitaxel Versus Weekly Paclitaxel as Neo-adjuvant Treatment in Patients With Triple Negative or Luminal B/HER2 Normal BC (GENEVIEVE) NCT01779479 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Trial of Eribulin/Cyclophosphamide or Docetaxel/Cyclophosphamide as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Locally Advanced HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01527487 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.