Neurogenetic Pharmaceuticals (NGP) 555 in Healthy Young Volunteers (Single-ascending Dose)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-11-30, after 2015-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityheartsmallalzheimerascending
Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersphysical examinationvital signsvolunteer -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neurogenetic Pharmaceuticals (NGP) 555 in Healthy Volunteers (14 Day Multiple Ascending Dose) NCT02537938 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Multiple Ascending Dose Study of BPN14770 in Healthy Young and Elderly Male or Female Subjects NCT02840279 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Oral ASN51 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT04759365 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Multiple Ascending Dose Safety, Tolerability, PK Study of AL001 in Alzheimer's Disease Patients & Healthy Adult Subjects NCT05363293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 (First in Human) Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled SAD, MAD Study With Oral REM0046127 NCT04672135 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.