Phase 3 Randomized Placebo Controlled Clinical Trial of Donepezil

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerchemotherapydonepezilalzheimereligible
  Phrases that lowered it: drugstarting studymultipleimpairmentmedication
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 283 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Donepezil in Female Breast Cancer Survivors With Cognitive Dysfunction NCT01466270 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2, Randomized, Prospective Double-Blind, Single-Center, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Target Engagement, and Efficacy of PrimeC in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease. NCT06185543 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• MK-1942/Donepezil Interactions in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-1942-005) NCT04308304 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• A Dose Titration Study of CPC-201 in Patients With Dementia of Alzheimer's Type NCT02549196 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.