NP001, Alzheimer's Disease, and Blood Markers of Inflammation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-07-31, after 2017-09-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: alzheimersubjectstrokestablestudy drug
Phrases that lowered it: asthmaeffect ofblood pressurereceiptvisit -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Biomarker-directed Study of XPro1595 in Patients With Alzheimer's NCT03943264 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Multiple Ascending Dose Safety, Tolerability, PK Study of AL001 in Alzheimer's Disease Patients & Healthy Adult Subjects NCT05363293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Receptor Occupancy of BMS-984923 NCT04805983 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability of AZD0530 (Saracatinib) in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01864655 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.