Toripalimab or Placebo With Paclitaxel and Cisplatin in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withrandomizationwomenlesionbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevirusdosethe effecteffect of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of IBI308 With Advanced/Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma After Failure of First-line Treatment NCT03116152 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study Explore JS001+JS002 in Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT05128539 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Effectiveness of TQB2618 Injection Combined Therapy in Patients With Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT05834543 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• Carboplatin/Cisplatin + Etoposide + Benmelstobart Sequential Benmelstobart Combined With Anlotinib Versus Carboplatin/Cisplatin + Etoposide + Tislelizumab Sequential Tislelizumab in the Treatment of Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT06897579 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• A Study Exploring Efficacy of SIBP04 in Subjects With Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT05318443 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.