Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Effectiveness of TQB2618 Injection Combined Therapy in Patients With Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-03-03, after 2023-05-26 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantationenrollmentventriculartumorheart
Phrases that lowered it: diseasespatients whoareasafety ofaccording -
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 44 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 70 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 145509 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 15233 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, paclitaxel, penpulimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Toripalimab or Placebo With Paclitaxel and Cisplatin in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03829969 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- CAPOX + Bevacizumab + Tislelizumab Treating PD-L1 CPS < 5 Locally Advanced or Metastatic GEA NCT05299476 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Study of IBI308 With Advanced/Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma After Failure of First-line Treatment NCT03116152 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Toripalimab with Paclitaxel and Cisplatin As Neoadjuvant Treatment for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04804696 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
- Assessment of Safety ,Tolerance and Pharmacokinetics Clinical Efficacy With BAT1308 in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT05155722 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.