Targeted Therapy With CDK4/6 Inhibitors in Chemo-Refractory, Rb Wild-Type Extensive SCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancersmall cellcell lungstagepatient
  Phrases that lowered it: typewildpatients whoantiretroviralrefractory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 208 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2609 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Abemaciclib for Patients With Retinoblastoma-Positive, Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03130439 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1 Study of LY2835219 In Participants With Advanced Cancer NCT01394016 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Abemaciclib in Patients With Oligodendroglioma NCT03969706 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib Trial of the KRAS G12C Inhibitor Adagrasib (MRTX849) in Combination With the PARP Inhibitor Olaparib in Patients With KRAS G12C Mutated Advanced Solid Tumors, With a Focus on Gynecological, Breast, Pancreatic and KEAP1 Mutated Non-small Cell Lung Cancers NCT06130254 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of ABEMACICLIB Monotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer After Failure of Platinum and Cetuximab or Anti-EGFR-based Therapy and Harboring an Homozygous Deletion of CDKN2A, and/or an Amplification of CCND1 and/or of CDK6 NCT03356223 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.