Trial of ZN-A-1041 Enteric Capsules in Patients With HER2-Positive Advanced Solid Tumors
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-04-16, after 2020-10-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: braintherapymetastaticher2cancer
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoperiodopen labelthis trialevaluate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 11 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 102253 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14265 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, trastuzumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase 1b/2 Study of BKM120 Plus Trastuzumab in Patients With HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT01132664 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Tucatinib vs. Placebo in Combination With Capecitabine & Trastuzumab in Patients With Advanced HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02614794 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Testing the Drug Atezolizumab or Placebo With Usual Therapy in First-Line HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03199885 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
- Phase 1 Study of Single Agent GBR 1302 in Subjects With HER2 Positive Cancers NCT02829372 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Tucatinib Plus Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT04539938 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.