Study to Evaluate the Effects of RO7496998 (AT-527) in Non-Hospitalized Adult and Adolescent Participants With Mild or Moderate COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientdiarrheaactivitydiseaserandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: influenza19participantsthe efficacyvaccination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1185 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effects of AT-527 in Non-Hospitalized Adult Patients With Mild or Moderate COVID-19 NCT04709835 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of AZD7442 for Treatment of COVID-19 in Outpatient Adults NCT04723394 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• COVID-19 Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of REGN14256+Imdevimab for the Treatment of COVID-19 Adult and Adolescent Patients Without Risk Factors for Progression to Severe Disease NCT05081388 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Non-inferiority Trial on Treatments in Early COVID-19 NCT05321394 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study of Obeldesivir in Nonhospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT05715528 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.