Topical Piroxicam vs Soulagel in the Treatment of Acute Extremity Pain After Emergency Department Discharge
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-03-21, after 2021-10-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painskininability toacuteuse
Phrases that lowered it: topicalefficacy andtraumapatients whodermatitis -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 35 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5307 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 507 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- piroxicam
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Lidocaine Patch in Acute Musculoskeletal Pain in the Emergency Department NCT03571737 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Comparing Five Oral Analgesics for Treatment of Acute Pain in the Emergency Department (ED) NCT03173456 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Ketoprofen 10% Cream for Treatment of Pain Associated With Mild to Moderate Acute Soft Tissue Injury NCT00765700 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Bonipar for Acute and Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain NCT03471507 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Acupuncture Versus Intravenous Morphine in the Management of Acute Pain in the Emergency Department NCT02460913 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.