A Vaccine (PolyPEPI1018 Vaccine) and TAS-102 for the Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-06-11, after 2022-01-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellscancertumorpriorstage
Phrases that lowered it: participantvaccineparticipantscolorectal canceruln -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 39.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1224 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 247 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14428 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1981 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 39.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tipiracil, trifluridine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PolyPEPI1018 Vaccine and CDx for the Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (OBERTO) NCT03391232 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Regorafenib, Ipilimumab and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Chemotherapy Resistant Microsatellite Stable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04362839 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Safety and Activity of PolyPEPI1018 Plus Atezolizumab in Colorectal Cancer. NCT05243862 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Immunotherapy With CEA(6D) VRP Vaccine (AVX701) in Patients With Stage III Colorectal Cancer NCT01890213 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- QUILT 3.071: NANT Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Vaccine NCT03563157 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.