A Study to Evaluate VTX2735 in Patients With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: associatedtherapydayshepatitiseffective
  Phrases that lowered it: periodparticipantswashoutevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of JTE-162 in Subjects With Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndrome (CAPS) NCT07247266 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of Canakinumab in Patients Aged 4 Years or Older Diagnosed With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes (CAPS) in Canada NCT01105507 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• HL2351 CAPS Phase II Study NCT02853084 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01576367 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01302860 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.