Phase II Study of REPotrectinib With or Without Fulvestrant in Patients With Hormone Receptor-positive Human Epidermal Growth Factor 2-negative Metastatic Invasive LObular Carcinoma Who Received a Prior Endocrine Therapy in Combination With Cyclin-dependent Kinase 4 and 6 Inhibitor (REPLOT Trial)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorinstitutionalbiopsypotentialbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantof studyfirst doseweeks
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 183 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1224 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy of Ribociclib After Progression on CDK4/6 Inhibition in Patients With HR+ HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02632045 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• TEEL Study- Phase 1 Tamoxifen and Ribociclib (LEE011) in Advanced ER+ (HER2 Negative) Breast Cancer NCT02586675 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study Comparing The Efficacy Of Venetoclax + Fulvestrant Vs. Fulvestrant In Women With Estrogen Receptor-Positive, Her2-Negative Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Experienced Disease Recurrence Or Progression During Or After CDK4/6 Inhibitor Therapy NCT03584009 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Neratinib +/- Fulvestrant in HER2+, ER+ Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03289039 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• AMTEC IIT: Phase 2 Multiarm Study in TNBC NCT03801369 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.