The Effects of One-Time Pregnenolone, Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), or Placebo Administration On Withdrawal Symptoms, Mood, Craving And Cigarette Evaluation Ratings In Male Smokers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartpainkidneycancercoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmaleevaluate thedrugslung
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sex: male (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Nicotine Patch / Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation NCT02906644 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Combination Bupropion / Varenicline for Smoking Cessation in Male Smokers NCT01806779 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Mechanistic Evaluations of Pre-Cessation Therapies for Smoking Cessation NCT01406223 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• The Role of Nicotine Dose and Route of Delivery in Affecting Adoption of E-cigarettes and Reducing Exposure to Toxic Combustion Products NCT03492463 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction Treatment NCT01314001 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.