Clinical Study for the Treatment of Breast Cancer: the Patient Will Receive Afatinib Plus Letrozole or Letrozole Alone

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2breast cancerventricularmetastaticrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: hepatitistrialopen labeleffect ofto compare
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Letrozole in Patients With ER+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02491983 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Study of Taselisib + Fulvestrant Versus Placebo + Fulvestrant in Participants With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Disease Recurrence or Progression During or After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT02340221 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Study of Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Versus Tamoxifen for Patients With Hormone Receptor-positive (HR+) Early Breast Cancer, Who Have Discontinued Adjuvant Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy Due to Treatment-related Toxicity NCT05128773 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant in Men and Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer Which Progressed on or After Aromatase Inhibitor Treatment. NCT02437318 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib (PD-0332991) Combined With Fulvestrant In Hormone Receptor+ HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Failure (PALOMA-3) NCT01942135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.