Study of 50561 in Patients With Mild or Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectcarcinomabrainpriorfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate theparticipantsthe efficacydisorders
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of NE3107 in Probable Alzheimer's Disease NCT04669028 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2, Randomized, Prospective Double-Blind, Single-Center, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Target Engagement, and Efficacy of PrimeC in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease. NCT06185543 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Dose-Finding Study To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of E2609 in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease (Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease) and Mild to Moderate Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease NCT02322021 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.